Mat 540 mat540 week 2 homework assignment (latest updated on jan 14

 (If the Numbers are Different then jsut change the number in Excel and you will get the correct answers)





Week 2 Homework


Chapter 12


1. A local real estate investor in Orlando is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment:




               Gasoline Availability


Investment       Shortage             Stable Supply   Surplus


Motel                    $-8,000                 $15,000                 $20,000


Restaurant            2,000                  8,000         6,000


Theater                 6,000                   6,000                        5,000




Determine the best investment, using the following decision criteria.


a. Maximax


b. Maximin


c. Minimax regret


d. Hurwicz (α = 0.4)


e. Equal likelihood


2. A concessions manager at the Tech versus A&M football game must decide whether to have the vendors sell sun visors or umbrellas. There is a 30% chance of rain, a 15% chance of overcast skies, and a 55% chance of sunshine, according to the weather forecast in College Junction, where the game is to be held. The manager estimates that the following profits will result from each decision, given each set of weather conditions:






Weather Conditions


Decision              Rain       Overcast              Sunshine


       .30             .15                         .55


      Sun visors    $-500          $-200                       $1,500


      Umbrellas    2,000               0                             -900


a. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one.


b. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each decision.


3. Place-Plus, a real estate development firm, is considering several alternative development projects. These include building and leasing an office park, purchasing a parcel of land and building an office building to rent, buying and leasing a warehouse, building a strip mall, and building and selling condominiums. The financial success of these projects depends on interest rate movement in the next 5 years. The various development projects and their 5-year financial return (in $1,000,000s) given that interest rates will decline, remain stable, or increase, are shown in the following payoff table. Place-Plus real estate development firm has hired an economist to assign a probability to each direction interest rates may take over the next 5 years. The economist has determined that there is a .50 probability that interest rates will decline, a .40 probability that rates will remain stable, and a .10 probability that rates will increase.


a. Using expected value, determine the best project.


b. Determine the expected value of perfect information.




                                   Interest Rate


Project                          Decline          Stable                        Increase


Office park        $0.5              $1.7             $4.5


Office building                 1.5                1.9                                 2.5


Warehouse        1.7               1.4                                1.0


Mall                     0.7                  2.4                                3.6


Condominiums                 3.2               1.5                                0.6








4. The director of career advising at Orange Community College wants to use decision analysis to provide information to help students decide which 2-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and successful degree programs at OCC that shows the estimated 5-year gross income ($) from each degree for four future economic conditions:




               Economic Conditions


Degree Program               Recession          Average                              Good                            Robust


 Graphic design                  145,000           175,000                  220,000                   260,000


Nursing                                150,000          180,000                                  205,000                         215,000


Real estate                       115,000           165,000                                 220,000                          320,000


Medical technology      130,000            180,000                                 210,000                          280,000


Culinary technology      115,000            145,000                                  235,000                         305,000


Computer                          125,000           150,000                               190,000               250,000


information technology              






Determine the best degree program in terms of projected income, using the following decision criteria:


a. Maximax


b. Maximin


c. Equal likelihood


d. Hurwicz (α = 0.50)










5. Construct a decision tree for the following decision situation and indicate the best decision.


Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S. producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The profit from each type of dealership, given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff table:




               Gasoline Availability      


Dealership         Shortage              Surplus                  


                                      .6                         .4          


Compact cars    $ 300,000             $150,000             


Full-sized cars  -100,000               600,000                 


Trucks                 120,000    170,000              




Decision Tree diagram to complete:  (Please see below)






















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